Calculating Odds of Success for Online Dating Responses
Today I’m going to list all of the aspects of the women you’re messaging on an online dating site which will affect, positively or negatively, your odds that she will respond to your opener. For this analysis, I have assumed that:
1. Your photos are decent.
2. Your profile text is decent.
3. Your openers follow the standard opener rules (very brief, non-needy, doesn’t compliment appearance, doesn’t get sexual, etc).
The factors listed below are not including the factors that are related directly to you, like your attractiveness or how well-written your profile is. Today we’re only discussing the statistical aspects of the women you’re messaging.
Everything below I have empirically tracked over many years of online dating, both with my own results and the results other men have shared with me. Important note: I am talking here about normal online dating sites, not online dating apps (like Tinder), not sex sites, and not sugar daddy sites. (There is some overlap with these kinds of apps/sites, but there are also significant differences.)
They are not listed in any order.
Here we go:
1. Proximity. If the name of the town or neighborhood on her profile is exactly the same as yours, and it’s spelled the exact same way, odds of response go up.
Interestingly, once the names are different, the odds do not go up or down based on distance. In other words, a woman living in the next town over from you, about 10 minutes away, has the exact same odds of responding to your opener as a woman living in a town 50 minutes away, all other variables remaining equal.
2. Similar age range. If the woman you’re messaging is within seven years, plus or minus, of the age stated on your profile, and you look more or less close to that age, your odds of a response go up. They drop sharply if they’re more than seven, drop even more if they’re more than ten, and drop even more if they’re over 15.
As an example, when I message women under 25 my response rate is often 5% or less, but if I message women in their late 30s, my response rate can easily be 25-35%, depending on the site, the profile text, and the photos that I’m testing.
3. The taller, the better. I’ve mentioned this before. For some reason, women of all ages tend to be more responsive if they’re taller. Shorter women tend to be less responsive. My theory is that the taller a woman is the more confident she tends to be, but that’s only a guess.
4. She’s very cute, but not super hot. This is another interesting one, and many other men have reported this so I know it’s not just me. If the woman you’re messaging is very, very cute, but not super hot, your odds of a response go up. If she’s super hot, they drop slightly. If she’s ugly or mediocre, they also drop, at least slightly. I hate to use the 1-to-10 scale because it’s so subjective, but I’m talking here about women who are around an 8 but not a 9, 10, 6, or 7.
I have several theories as to why this holds true most of the time, but your guess is as good as mine. My best theory is that super-cute-but-not-super-hot women are confident enough you’ll like them, but are not as picky as a ten.
I just know that I always have better response rate chances with hot, but not super hot women.
5. The provider-vibe of the dating site. The more providerish the dating site is, the lower your overall response rates will be. This is because women you find there are provider hunters cruising for husbands or serious boyfriends and are going to be much, much more picky (often to the point of ridiculousness and impossibility).
So your response rates on sites like eHarmony and Match.com are always going to be lower compared to sites like OKCupid or Plenty of Fish.
Side point. As I’ve said before, this dynamic “stacks” with the age difference thing. Women on provider dating sites are going to be even more picky and adamant about staying away from much older (or younger) men than on other sites. To use myself as an example again, I date much younger women via online dating all the time with very little problem, even with low response rates. Yet for the past several years on Match.com, I haven’t been able to get a single date from a woman under 30 no matter how hard I try.
(Now watch this. Now that I’ve said that publicly, the next time I do a blitz on Match.com I’m going to get a date with an under-30 and it will be super easy. Life is weird like that.)
6. Similar race. Obviously, you’ll get better responses from women of the equivalent race. If you’re white, you’ll take a slight hit in response if you message women outside of your race. If you’re non-white, you’ll take a massive hit if you do this. Not only have I seen this with guys all over the world, but OKCupid has also verified this empirically.
This is why whenever a non-white guy asks me for online dating advice, the first thing I tell him to do (after cleaning up his photos) is to first message all the women of his own race first, and then tackle women outside of his race .
Final Thought – Don’t Be a Whiny Pussy
Now listen to me. I gave you the above information to help you. I did not give you the above information to provide more ammo for you to whine like a baby about why you can’t get laid. Stop being a whiny pussy and remember two things:
– Response rates are important, but they aren’t what really matters. What matters is how often you get laid. I almost never get more than 7-8% response rates online, yet I get laid constantly, consistently, and easily, whenever I want.
– Just because a type of woman is of lower statistical response for you, you cannot use it as an excuse to not message her. PUT IN THE NUMBERS, stay outcome independent, and don’t worry about the details. Focus on the group, not the girl. I have had sex with the opposite of all the above stereotypes online many times. I have had sex with plenty of women who were short, or way more than 15 years younger than me, or who were of different races, or who were older provider hunters, etc.
So keep all that in mind. I will be ignoring any comments that whine about how difficult dating or pickup has become. Suck it up, do the right things, and you can still make it work. Millions of men out there are doing just that.
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This is great man, Thank you…. I would be very interested to read more on the differences between all the different dating sites/apps….. specially how women approach each one.
3. Tall girls. I think they don’t get messaged as much so they are more likely to respond to those who do write her. This effect starts to kick in when the girls lists herself as 5’10” or taller.
Something I’ve found odd in the past little while. I’m doing well on OKCupid; profile views, responses, dates, etc. But when I go to POF, my results fall off the planet. This is with the same photos, profile and openers. What do you think it could be?
My theory on tall girls…. I think even very tall women do envision themselves marrying a guy who is still taller than them (or the same height, at the very least). If a shorter guy messages them, this takes them out of ‘provider hunting’ mode because they don’t really want to envision a future with this guy. This actually works in the guy’s advantage since he’s only looking to get laid.
As a fifty year old guy looking for women in that age range, the thing I found on Match.com was that there were a lot of recently divorced women. Re-entering the dating market at fifty, they still expected to be treated like a hot twenty year old even though they didn’t look anything like that anymore. It really wasn’t worth it to cater to them like that. After putting in the effort to have sex with a few of them, I just felt it wasn’t worth the effort. I imagine that a lot of the older women on those sites just end up as unmarried crazy cat lady types.
I will comment on number 3 and 4. Number 3 – Tall Girls: (I’m a girl and I’m only 5’3”) My opinion is that taller girls are actually less confident and they respond better for the reasons the above posters mentioned. I think most tall girls feel more self-conscious around guys. The majority of guys like shorter girls better. I have a few tall girl friends that have told me a number of times that they are jealous and that I’m so lucky to be short & petite…….so they came out and said it.
Number 4 – Very Cute but not Super Hot: I fall into this category for sure and I agree. For us girls who are lucky enough to fall into the “super cute, adorable and charming” category……we definitely are confident enough that a certain guy will like us and are not as picky as our super-hot counterparts. I’ll only reply to guys who I feel are on a similar level to me in the looks department though. If an ugly guy emails me……no reply/email deleted! If a super hot guy emails me, then a red flag goes up! I assume he’s just casting a really wide net……..because, why would he want to get with me when he could get with a way hotter girl?
Bulma78 … Why would he want to get with you, when he could get with a way hotter girl? – Because he’s a guy. He wants to get with you, and the girls who are hotter than you, and probably some that are less hot than you as well. Men will crave the Variety, regardless of how good looking he may be. What you call ‘casting a wide net’ is probably what all men are wired to do.
Getting phone numbers for me is easy. The biggest problem I’ve faced so far is getting women out on dates. BD how long do you tolerate talking online to women who only ever offer a ‘maybe’ when you propose a meet?
I feel that after 4 to 7 days of online conversation it needs to move to a physical meeting or else the whole thing just fizzles out. But I haven’t found many women who are up to meet that soon. I’ve probably converted less than 10% of the numbers I’ve got into dates and it’s really starting to frustrate me.
SPARKS – I have EXACTLY the same issue! .. I feel like these women are waiting for me to say some magical phrase or something over email that will make them want to meet me… but of course there’s no such thing. They will reply back and forth for a few days, and then disappear for no good reason.
Yes Bobby, they are the frustrating ones. Women that have no intention of meeting anyone but will happily talk all day. I would much rather they didn’t bother replying so you could move onto the next one. Think BD has touched on this in an earlier post actually, that there is a large proportion of women on dating sites who are not actually on there to meet anyone, just for attention/validation etc.
I address that in my ebooks, but there is no difference in the opener.
You have “normal” sites (OKC, POF) and “provider” sites (Match, eHarmony), but the overall approach is the same.
I have experienced the same problem in recent blitzes, but other guys have not, and still do just fine on POF.
I think POF has become a regional thing; in some areas it works great, in others it sucks.
Yep. Standard women-over-33 stuff, that I’ve discussed many times.
On Match it’s going to be even worse, since they’re not only over-33’s but over-33 provider hunters. Go to a site like OKC instead.
As I’ve said before, Match is THE place divorced women automatically go to find husband number two.
VERY interesting. I had not considered that. I think you’re onto something.
I don’t tolerate it at all. I ask clearly and nicely, twice, then I next!
For example, the first pitch will be:
“We should meet up. Something simple like a quick drink after work. Thursday and Friday are workable. If you’re down for that, let me know what part of town you’d be coming from and I can give you a time and a place.”
Second pitch will be:
“I’m still down for meeting up. Just pick a day. Probably not Monday though.”
If she throws any wishy-washy answer from the second pitch, NEXT!!!!, and I’m on to the next woman on the list. I don’t even think about it.
Like Kevin O’Leary says, there’s always another deal coming through that door, and once you’re out, you’re dead to me.
Thank you Bobby, I didn’t think really hot guys wanted variety. I just figured they’d go for the hottest girls, or just wanted a variety within the bunch of the hotter ones. But it’s ok becasue I don’t go for the conventionally hot ones anyways.
Black Dragon, if this question is off topic or none of my business that’s ok, but I was curious, what do you have as the intent for your online dating profile(s)? I believe the POF choices are: Casual dating/no commitment, Dating but nothing serious, Wants a relationship and Actively seeking a relationship. Again I was just curious and thank you very much in advance.
You’re screwing up somewhere before the meet. I’ve been converting about 80% of phone numbers into dates recently. Something about your profile, photos, messages or texting isn’t attracting women (or is maybe even sending them running) and is causing them to flake. Whenever you have trouble with a specific step, the problem has occurred previously, not where the actual problem is happening.
I always say “Relationship.” It’s the only intent that doesn’t badly damage response rates.
By they way, it’s true, at least in my case. I do look for relationships and never do one night stands. I’m also “seeking” a “serious” relationship (OLTR).
*** For some reason, women of all ages tend to be more responsive if they’re taller. Shorter women tend to be less responsive.***
Shorter women are more in demand and have more choices.It is not that she did not chose you it is that she never even got to you because her inbox was full…..
Men like to feel bigger, stronger and more dominant.
Women like to feel smaller, cuter and more feminine and they would like men to be taller than them and still be able to wear high heels. There are not a lot of men that tall when she gets to be over 5′ 5″.
I never could understand why they like taller women to be models
(over 5′ 7″)because they would only appeal to very tall men.
Another weird fact
everything else being equal
a woman with a smaller head looks prettier/sexier.
Agree? or no?
In my own experience tall girls are indeed more self-conscious about themselves. Specially when a new guy shows interest in them.
If you go to tinder (where you cannot pre-check the height of potential matchs) the first thing girls over 5’7″ will ask you is how tall you are. Thing is they absolutely hate to dress up and go out to meet a shorter guy who’s lied to them, so yes, they tend to be picky about that.
Agreed. Right now POF sucks where I live (although I still manage to get good lays from there).
Whoa, 4-7 days of either online or txt conversation is far too long, this is akin to when you are on a date, you should be 80/20 her/you talking. Something in you communication is turning them off. This below is my pattern for success online:
2-3 (Maybe 4) messages when you get a response from online connection over max 1-3 days (3 days being how long it takes her to respond to your message. If its taking that long for her to respond, its already a sign of low interest from her)
Ask for the phone number in the 3rd message, and some times she is available to chat.
Get on the phone with her at that time, with your confident frame, and 80/20 listen/talk. At the end, pitch the Coffee/Drink get together, like BD mentions.
Using that method, I can’t recall recently a drink/coffee date that I was turned down for on the phone.
This is an area I have some experience in, as my Type is 5’7″ and above, while I will date a shorter woman, I love the taller ladies. 🙂 For the record, I am 6′, 6’1 in shoes.
Like has been mentioned, they are much more self conscious about their height, and most, not all, see it as a minus for themselves. Often they were tall and picked on in school, and that set the self esteem issue that they carry with them. This is also Geographic, where the US has much shorter average women and men, than say the Netherlands. (I am short, by Nordic standards.. 🙂 )
Having had several long term and short term relationships with women 5’8-5’11, they ALL love a guy that is taller than they are, especially when they can wear heels, even if they just slightly taller than me in them. Every one of them has told me personally, that they love that I am taller than they are. They biologically get the ‘safe, protector’ feeling from it.
Every one of them also said they don’t mind dating shorter men, however, what they say, and how they actually act are different. They want that protector feeling, and become self conscious about it over time. I have experienced it over and over. And, also just as BD says, there are always ‘exceptions’ to the rule, so this is generalizing from my own experiences.
BD, I don’t know how tall you are but I would bet a good sum that if your response rates are higher for taller women, it’s because you yourself are tall.
I’ve read various mentions of the preponderance of tall women on dating sites, and I can tell you that the reason for this is because those women are specifically using the sites to filter for tall men. They mentioning their height first and foremost to prevent shorter men from contacting them. I’m 5’9″ and I have used dating sites for a week or two at a time now and then over the past few years, and I’ve agreed to actually meet up with 6 men during that period. All 6 guys I met were 6’3″ or above and good-looking. And in my day to day life I very rarely meet guys who are that tall, good-looking, and single, so for me, that is the specific reason I go online and it works very well for that purpose. Also, I just assume that most guys with a listed height under 6′ are lying and adding an inch or two, which is why I have only agreed to meet with guys who list a height that would make them very tall — no one would lie and think they could get away with saying they’re 6’4″.
This illustrates the generalization you can make about men and women with online dating, which is that men go to cast a wide net and women go because it allows them to filter very tightly for a specific type of person from a much larger pool than they would meet IRL.
Also, the social science on height and attraction is pretty clear. Women prefer men who are much taller, relatively, to them, while men are attracted to a greater range and don’t prefer such an extreme height difference. There’s a real mismatch here. A woman’s ideal man is about 8 inches taller than she is, while a man’s ideal woman is only 3 inches shorter than him (unless he is very tall himself). Also, for both men and women, being taller means higher confidence and satisfaction with their own height, which reaches a peak at about the 95th percentile for height in their sex, and then begins to decrease (though it never decreases to the point of short people). Not surprisingly, men and women’s satisfaction with their own height corresponds almost exactly with the opposite sex’s satisfaction with their partner’s height, with the general rule that taller is better until you get into freakishly tall territory (98th percentile and up). http://www.academia.edu/3151923/Women_want_taller_men_more_than_men_want_shorter_women
The extremity with which women prefer much taller men is not often fully acknowledged, I think because we all know it isn’t fair and there’s nothing a short guy can do about it. But in reality you almost can’t overstate how much of an advantage being tall is for a guy. I have dated very tall men (6’5″ to 6’8″) and the almost universal adoration, asskissing, and deference they get from both men and women is truly astonishing. Total strangers are constantly coming up to them to admire and comment on their height and offer favors and friendship, it goes well beyond the flattery and friendliness I’ve ever seen a hot woman get because everyone does it…men, women, old people, kids. Again, I think people don’t like to talk about this because it’s unfair and sort of ugly, but walk around for a day with a guy who looks like a professional basketball player and you will be absolutely amazed at how constantly people start running up and displaying almost dog-like submissive behavior.
TLDR: the reason you get such high responses from tall women is because ALL women REALLY want a partner who is much taller than them, and you are tall yourself (I’m guessing).
On the general topic of response rates, here’s a tip: don’t message a woman immediately after she has just signed up for a site. It’s really annoying how when a new woman signs up, her profile gets “boosted” and comes up with a higher priority for male users. Because then she ends up getting hundreds of messages in one day and it’s just impossible to go through that many. So she either has to delete virtually all of them, most without even reading, based on profile picture, or she just gives up and never signs back on because of being overwhelmed. I’ve never lasted on a site more than a week or two because of this…if the messages came in at a slower rate, it would be easier for women to go through them and make rational decisions about who to respond to. The message volume drops off after the initial debut of a profile, so in order for guys to play the odds, I would suggest waiting at least a week before sending a message…the odds that she will read the whole thing would go up significantly.
I found this interesting article on OKCupid a while back. Basically, it’s saying that women who are thought of by most men as “cute” will actually get much fewer messages than women who are more polarizing (with men thinking they’re either hot or ugly, with little in between). This is probably because men are expecting there to be more competition for the cute girl.
Personally, I’ve never considered height to be an important factor in the men I am attracted to, but that’s probably because I’m only about 5’3″ myself and even in my 4″ heels, there simply aren’t many guys who are shorter than me. I think runway models (excluding the Victoria’s Secret types) are universally tall and skinny because that body type best allows the clothes to take center stage – the designers don’t want sexy curves to be a distraction. Many runway models also don’t have conventionally attractive faces, either, probably for the same reason.
Nope. I’m 5’11” when barefoot. On my profile I say I’m 6 foot. I don’t consider that “tall,” but I guess one could argue that.
Regarding the other points made by some other commenters on taller women, I do agree that ALL women of ALL heights vastly prefer a man taller than her, so taller women have a smaller “market” of men. I’ve noticed that very tall women, say 5’10” and above, tend to go for very tall men, say 6’2″ and above, and that they don’t like it when a man is shorter than they are.
However, I have seen many exceptions to this. There are plenty of guys with stronger game who are well under 5’9″ who get laid a lot, including by taller women.
I don’t agree that taller women are more self-conscious. I’ve played around with several taller women and I haven’t seen this.
Interesting and fun coincidence: Just today I was on a second date with a blonde who was 5’11”, and for some insane reason she wore heels to the date. WTF?
Sitting at the bar everything was fine, but even with the business shoes I was wearing, she towered over me when we walked side-by-side. She even had to bend down to kiss/hug me. It was the second date so it’s not like she didn’t know how tall I was.
I have seen tall women say they avoid heels for this reason, but not her. Hell, maybe tall women who wear heels like being taller than dudes. Funny.
@BD
Perhaps she was testing your confidence? Seeing if you react?
I don’t think it was that conscious or calculated. But I could be wrong. She’s 31, just two years away from the Age of Doom, so anything’s possible. This is why I was out at a bar on the second date when I would rather be at my place. But per her age range, when I suggested my place as the location for the second date she sputtered a bunch of ASD. Thus the bar. My place will be the third date, or she’s out.
My odds of success with this one are still about 50% though. Not bad. We’ll see next week.
Eh, she probably just thinks her legs look good in high heels. Personally, I would wear high heels to any date, work meeting or other occasion that calls for dressing nicely – they give me a great confidence boost and just go better with a nice outfit than a pair of flats (they can also dress up a pair of jeans). But then again, I don’t tower over anybody ever, LOL.
Blackdragon, in the question “how long do you tolerate talking online to women who only ever offer a maybe when you propose a meet?” you have written above:
“I don’t tolerate it at all. I ask clearly and nicely, twice, then I next!”
But how long do you wait between the two pitches? The first one will be at the 3rd message in accordance to TPE. The second pitch next day after a short convo, for example?
Indeed, how long do you wait before you pitch the meet for a second time? This is something that troubles me. If too soon, she may not be ready, and if too late, you may have wasted your time.
Perhaps a day. If she balks, end the conversation nicely, wait a day, start up a convo again, pitch again. If she balks a second time, MOVE ON.
Hmm you were talking about the Three Exchange Process. It surprises me that you wait a day till the first pitch.
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Words of advice about online dating:
1. Posting pictures on your profile is paramount. But unless the people who are viewing your profile are interested in photography, they are only interested in pictures of YOU. They are NOT interested in pictures of your family, pets, vacation, etc.(unless you’re in these pictures) so don’t post these kind of pictures in your profile.
2. If you make a date and want to break it later, have the decency to call the person on the phone. Only cowards break a date by sending an email or a text message. Also, don’t act like a real jerk by either completely avoiding any contact with the person after you make a date….that is, not calling them, not answering their phone calls, and not returning them……., or waiting until they call you before you tell them you can’t keep the date. Again, have the decency to call them, and make the call when you know you’re not going to keep the date.
3. If someone sends you a message on an internet dating site, and you’re NOT interested, DON’T reply. Sending a reply will probably entice the person to keep sending you more messages. Also, don’t say something stupid like you already have a boyfriend or girlfriend. It’s not believable….if that’s really the situation with you, then why are you on the dating site?
4. If the main picture on someone’s profile is appealing to you, have the common sense to look at ALL of the pictures on the profile BEFORE you send them a message, especially if they contact you first. This goes hand in hand with number 3 above.
5. If you receive a call for the FIRST time from someone you’ve given your number to, and you can’t talk to them at that time, then YOU should return the call. DON’T tell them to call back. They took the initiative to make the call, and obviously didn’t know it was a bad time for you to speak, so YOU should have the decency to make the return call.
6. Post the CORRECT city and state where you live in your profile. It sounds like basic common sense, but intentionally posting a city, state or country where you don’t live does happen. When you tell the person you live in another place, it’s a real turn off, especially if you live in another country.
Black Dragon your advice is great.
I have been dating women my age and older for years, but I am tired of them. Too many physical flaws.
So I was looking around for a site where younger women were seeking much older men. I haven’t dated younger women for about 15 years, so I need to quickly learn their psychology and the in and outs of texting. I joined a site where young women were looking for older guys. I put up a brief profile, not my best, and no picture. Four days later I have over 450 contacts, over 90 of whom want to meet me, and yet only 32 looked at my profile. How can that be? They haven’t seen a picture of men and only 32 looked at my brief profile.
I wrote the dating site, reviewed the above stats, and asked for an explanation. They sent ambiguous, obfuscated answers that focused on questions that I did not ask. Three times I asked them and three times they acted as above.
Black Dragon, What do you think?
John
My saga of attempting to train up to meet younger women continues.
Although I have not yet paid a membership to the dating site I mentioned in my last comment, over 100 of the women have sent me their phone number and invitations to text (in code).I have not used texting before and I greatly dislike it for the following reasons: (1) It teaches bad grammar and stunted conversation. (2) It is sterile, there is no nuance from listening to the voice of the woman, which I am excellent at interpreting and reacting to rapidly. (3) Texting sacrifices one of my key preliminary communications assets, my voice. Over 80% of the women I talk to say that my voice is “sexy” and “makes them horny.” Yet it seems standard to me. (4) Texting causes a lot of confusion because when talking to 10 or 15 women at a time, its too long and drawn out.
There are more objections to texting but I will spare you.
On my new dating site there was an add for the dating consulting site of John Alanis. I read some of his stuff, but he is an amateur compared to the Black Dragon’s information. Yet, the ad made all kinds of promises about sending a “free report” entitled: “You Date Younger Women Report,” that ebook promised to decode the psychology of younger women by explaining, the psychology, patterns, supplementary info on texting and other young female dating tools and crutches. John Alanis and his assistant “Julie”then “sent me” the “free book” by email.They sent me a dead link that never worked. In spite of me writing them several times and even telephoning the Alanis “group”, they continued the same mailing of a blank link. They never responded to any of my questions but sent me lots of pictures of semi-nude women. Since I have seen the real thing many times, those pictures are of no interest.
Now I am looking for a good ebook on texting and some information on dealing with sex-hungry females 20 to 30 years younger than me. Although I married a beauty queen who was 18 years younger than me, our marriage only lasted 12 years. In addition, I have stumbled into relationships with younger babes in stores and at the mall. But now, since I am older and not as attractive( I was shot, stabbed and head bashed as a combat officer, which negatively affected my looks and physical being). That’s why I am seeking information that will give me an edge. In addition, I do not look forward to texting over 100 babes, so I am culling the list by picking the best looking and best educated ones.
Black Dragon, any advice will be appreciated by this older “grasshopper.”
I don’t know much about John Alanis but it sounds like that dating site you’re on is one of those scammer sites like Social Sex, where as soon as you sign up hordes of super hot younger “women” message you out of the blue. Unless it’s a sugar daddy site where these women are expecting money, it’s a scam and I would dump that site and use a real, working one like OKCupid.
How about setting every question to private?
If women are there to disqualify me, I might as well give them less to work with….and there’s the added benefit of being able to answer as my target market would.
Blackdragon,
Just a curious question for you: as your goal is to have sex as fast as possible, how come you have never tried adult dating sites where all the members there are already open to the idea of having sex?
Wouldn’t that be easier with the level of game you have?
As always, great articles and I enjoy reading them. Would love to hear your views on this. 🙂