The 2% Rule

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For about 15 years now, I have followed what I call the 2% Rule. It's something that will dramatically increase your happiness in life, and it has direct applications to your woman-life. The 2% Rule is this: If a particular negative result has a less than 2% chance of occurring, don't worry about it. Don't even think about it. Proceed.

-By Caleb Jones

Over the years of discussing dating and relationships with men, here is a random smattering of some of the statements I've seen men make:

I can't finger a girl if I don't know her well! I might get herpes on my finger!!! I saw it on Wikipedia!!! You say to wait until you're older to have kids, but that's terrible advice! Your kids might have birth defects!!! Look at this article!!! Even if I don't cum, I still have to use a condom on my girlfriend! I could get her pregnant with my pre-cum!!! My doctor said!!!

You don't understand! I HAVE to marry her! Her uncle is really rich! What if he dies and she inherits all his money??? I'll never get any of that cash!!! I can't have sex with women on the second date! That's way too soon! One of them might be a feminist and make a false rape accusation against me and I'll go to jail!!! I read it on a forum!!!

You can't soft next women like that! What if she shows up at your house and your work and becomes a psycho stalker??? It doesn't matter if she got a clean STD test a week ago, she still might have an STD! What if she fucked ten other guys in the last five days and got an STD from one of them??? I'm not making any of this up. These are all real things real men have said.

It's not just men doing this. I've seen mothers not allow their kids to go on beach field trips because "what if there's a tsunami???". I've also seen women say, "I have to leave the TV/radio blasting all day! What if there's a tornado headed straight for my house??? I need to know!!!"

Are those above things possible? Yes, they're possible. There is indeed a 0.06% chance or 1.2% chance of something like that happening. Are they likely? No. Are they even remotely likely? No. The 2% Rule says if any action has a less than 2% chance of resulting in something horrible, then go for it. You'll be fine. Stressing out about things that have a less than a 2% chance of happening to you in real life damages your happiness, raises your stress, restricts your actions, limits your freedom, and makes you sound like a spazoid. Relax. Take a deep breath. It will be fine.

Conservatives, terrorists from Iran aren't going to blow up your house and the government will never force you to marry someone of your own gender. Progressives, global warming isn't going to kill you. Neither will the Ten Commandments. PUAs, she's not going to get pregnant from your pre-cum. Manosphere guys, feminists are not going to castrate you or turn you gay. Ladies, he's not going to put roofies in your drink on a first date.

All of you need to relax. Yes, these things are possible, but all of these things have a less than 2% chance of actually happening, therefore you shouldn't even think about them. I don't walk around worrying about these things for the same reason I don't go around jumping with joy that I'll win $500 million in the lottery next month. Now if something bad has a higher than 2% chance of happening, then it's time to actually consider it and take precautions.

Terrorists might not blow up your house, but there is a 90% chance (at least) that your government is going to try to rip you off by taxing you way too much, so you should take legal precautions against this. Global warming isn't going to kill you, but the odds are at least 60% that your lifespan will decrease significantly if you live your entire life in a downtown area where the air is bad, so you should consider moving out to the country eventually. She's not going to get pregnant from your pre-cum, but the odds are easily above 2% that you'll get chlamydia or HSV-2 if you have sex with multiple stranger women without a condom, so you'd better put that condom on. (Later, after you've been seeing one particular woman many months and she clearly demonstrates responsible behavior, then maybe you can take the condom off with her.)

Feminists aren't going to castrate you, but the odds are at least 60% that once a woman moves in with you (or even just gets very serious with you), she'll attempt to start bossing you around because of Societal Programming originating with feminism, so you'd better think very carefully about doing this before you actually start making commitments. That guy on that first date isn't going to try to roofie you, but the odds are well beyond 2% that he'll try to get you liquored up so he can get into your pants. (Of course, as a woman, you may want to drink to reduce your own ASD, but that's another topic.)

I talk all the time about things like odds of divorce (60%+) and its solution (don't get legally married or get an enforceable prenuptial agreement), or the odds of cheating (70%+) and its solution (always have open or semi-open relationships/marriage). I talk about maximizing your odds of getting to sex quickly and ways to do that (don't cold approach women over age 33, don't compliment a woman's appearance, keep your first dates to under 1 hour, etc). You'll notice that all of these things involve odds of much, much higher than 2%.

I'll tell you to get a prenup (high probability prevention), but I won't be advising you to run criminal background checks on every woman you have sex with because she might be a serial killer (low probability prevention). One prevents a 60%+ odds problem, the other prevents a 0.01% odds problem. See how this works?

Any time you're considering a course of action, and see a negative possibly, research it and look dispassionately at the real odds of it and consider:

1. The actual mathematical odds of this actually happening in real life.

2. The actual mathematical odds of this actually happening to you personally, not to someone you've heard of ten years ago, or read about in a news article, or someone living in the 1700s or in some distant third-world country. I'm not talking about general statements from a friend, family member, doctor, article, or even some asshole on a blog like this. I'm talking about real stats. I'm also not talking about the middle ages or Uganda. As always, I'm taking about the modern age and the western world. Crunch the numbers, then ask yourself if the odds are 2% or less. If they are, then don't worry about it. Proceed.

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